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King of All Cosmos

opiate1138 in watchingoscar

Oscar Predictions

I posted this in my regular journal yesterday, but totally forgot to cross post it. :)

So. Oscar nominations come out tomorrow. I'm a little bittersweet about it, because this will be the first year that I think I will have seen every major movie, and there might not even be a damn ceremony. For those of you that don't know, I am a giant freak. I buy myself a very nice bottle of wine, take Monday off, and have a little Oscar party of one. It's one of the things I most look forward to. To which I most look forward. Anyway . . .

I'm still lacking a few major flicks. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," which isn't showing in Dayton, and might not. "The Savages," not showing until sometime in Feb. "Charlie Wilson's War" and "American Gangster" I will most likely see next weekend. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," "The Assassination of Jesse James . . . " and "Gone Baby Gone" will arrive via Netflix the first week of Feb. And some of the long shots - "Enchanted," "Dan in Real Life," I'll see if I have time and money. On to my predictions!

Two lists. Those I think will be nominated/win, and those I want to be nominated/win. And mind you, if either one of those lists are on the money (or any combination thereof), I'll totally be all "I RULE!!!" I'm italicizing flicks I might not see, bolding the ones I will (mainly for my own point of reference). Oh, and if anyone would happen (ahem) to have any bootlegs, give me a poke. I'll totally rent them from Netflix when they're available, so it's only partially cheating. K. Here we go:

Because yes, the Oscars are predictable and frivolous:
*Daniel Day Lewis - There Will be Blood
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
James McAvoy - Atonement
Viggo Mortenson - Eastern Promises
Wild Card - Emile Hirsch for Into the Wild, or Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl.

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James . ..
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
*Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Wild Card - Tommy Lee Jones for No Country, or Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
*Julie Christie - Away from Her (This really was an amazing movie. I don't think many people saw it)
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart
Wild Card - Ellen Page for Juno or Kiera Knightly for Atonement. Frick. I'm cheating. Maybe Laura Linney, too. Actually, probably Laura Linney before Ellen Page.

*Cate Blanchett - I'm not There I can has bootleg?
Saorise Roran - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Wild Card - Catherine Keener for Into the Wild or Julia Roberts for Charlie Wilson's War. Frick. Cheating again. Tilda Swinton.

Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - bewt?
I forget his first name Wright - Atonement
Coens - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will be Blood
Wild Card - man this is a hard one - Sean Penn for Into the Wild or David Fincher for Zodiac. Yeah, that's a total long shot but I'm calling it.

McGarvey - Atonement. Yes, the tracking shot was amazing but it didn't touch the trek through the war zone in Children of Men. That's the be all end all of tracking shots in my book. Rope doesn't count.
Gautier - Into the Wild. It's a bit hard to fuck up the cinematography when you have that kind of scenery to work with.
Elswit - There Will be Blood
Deakins - No Country for Old Men
Wild Card - Schaeffer - The Kite Runner or Wolsky for Sweeney Todd
I can't pick a winner here. The use of light in Blood was boss, Atonement was just beautiful, and the framing of No Country totally added to the tension. So I dunno.

Art Direction
*Baille - Atonement
Feretti - Sweeney Todd
Chong et all for Lust, Caution These boots were made for watchin'? No, I haven't seen it, but I saw a trailer and that's all I need. It's a rich, luscious period piece. The end.
Brendtnarova et all - La Vie en Rose
Wild Card - Davenport for Hairspray or Huband for Elizabeth

I'll admit I'm not entirely up on what makes an editor the best. But according to my definition, here are my picks
*Tothill - Atonement
Gilroy - Michael Clayton (directed and edited by the same person. Whooohohohoo)
Scalia - American Gangster
Wall - Zodiac. Not so sure on this one since a lot of people complained about the length, but sequence of events was crucial to this flick.
Wild Card - I would think that the editing for musicals would be super tough, so I'm throwing in Sweeney Todd and Hairspray.

Costumes. Can't decide. Flashy doesn't always win.
*Duran - Atonement
Ryack - Hairspray
Atwood - Sweeney Todd
*Byrne - Elizabeth
Wild Card - Pan for Lust, Caution or Allen for La Vie en Rose

Original Screenplay. Seems like there were tons of adaptations this year.
*Cody - Juno
Knight - Eastern Promises
Haggis - In the Valley of Elah
Jenkins - The Savages
Gilroy - Michael Clayton. Whoa! Triple threat, he wrote, directed AND edited. Unheard of. Unless you're Kevin Smith. Ahem.

Hampton - Atonement
Polley - Away from Her
*Coens - No Country for Old Men
Benioff - The Kite Runner
Wild Card - Penn for Into the Wild or Anderson for There Will be Blood

I'm saving music for the second list. Which begins now!

Christian Bale - Rescue Dawn
Donald Pinsent - Away from Her
*Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
*Daniel Day Lewis - There Will be Blood (he's pretty fucking awesome, yo)
Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl
Crap! I forgot about Chris Cooper for Breach. Oh, hm. So did everybody else.

Ben Foster - 3:10 to Yuma
Armin Mueller Stahl - Eastern Promises
Steve Zahn - Rescue Dawn
*John Travolta - Hairspray
tie - Javier Bardem (again, he's pretty awesome) or I forget his first name Kahn for The Namesake

Julie Christie - Away from Her
Ashley Judd - Bug
Keri Russel - Waitress
*Marcia Gay Harden - The Dead Girl
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose

Olympia Dukakis - Away from Her
Jennifer Garner - Juno
Tabu - The Namesake
*Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
Taraji Henson - Talk to Me

Directing - five way tie for winner. :P
Sarah Polley - Away from Her. I want her to win not only because a woman has never taken this award, but also because this was her directorial debut and it was amazing.
Paul Haggis - In the Valley of Elah. Sometimes is hard to tell, especially when tried and true actors are involved, if it's the actors making you feel so much, or if it's the director making the actors feel so much. But I sure as shit FELT in this movie.
Werner Herzog - Rescue Dawn. C'mon, man! Where is the Herzog love?
Coens - No Country for Old Men
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd. 'Cause I'm a sucker for Tim Burton

*Zeitlinger - Rescue Dawn
Wolsky - Sweeney Todd
Deakins - No Country
Elswit - There Will be Blood
McGarvey - Atonement. Fuck it. I'm a sucker for a tracking shot.

Art Direction
Guay et all - 300. I'm not sure this would count since so much of it is compy generated, that's why I didn't include it above.
Daniels - Black Snake Moan. I felt dirty and sweaty just watching it.
*Davenport - Hairspray
Feretti - Sweeney Todd
Baillie - Atonement. Goddamnit. I don't want to admit that this movie is as awsesome as it is.

Tothill - Atonement. Dammit.
Yates - The Dead Girl
Bini - Rescue Dawn
Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Mullen - Once

*Atwood - Sweeney Todd
Ryack - Hairspray
Allen - La Vie en Rose
Wilkinson - 300 (snicker snicker. But I'm serious. They were barely there, but they looked bad ass, especially the Persians.
Tie. Phillips for Talk to Me - fashion through the eras and all that jazz, or Gillian Mann for Lars and the Real Girl. An interesting pick, but very representative of small town life without making them look like thrift store rubes.

Knight - Eastern Promises
*Haggis - In the Valley of Elah
*Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl
Shelly - Waitress
Brewer - Black Snake Moan

*Polley for Away from Her
Taraporavela - The Namesake
*Coens - No Country for Old Men
Anderson - There Will be Blood
Vanderbilt - Zodiac

Now the music is odd this year. I'm not going to try to pick an original song (but it should be something from "Once," I'll tell you that right now) but it almost seems as if there could be two categories again this year. Score, and song score or adaptation score - which used to be a category. So that's what I'm doing.

*Greenwood - There Will be Blood. And I'm not just saying that because it's Johnny Greenwood, because I totally forgot about that while I was watching the movie. It's just a badass score!
Bates - 300. Metal, yo. Metal.
Cave and Ellis - The Assassination . . . OK, I haven't seen the movie but it's Nick Cave and Warren fucking Ellis. I think Warren fucking Ellis needs an Oscar, don't you?
Sawhney - The Namesake
Marianelli - Atonement
Shore - Eastern Promises

Song Score/Adaptation - I don't have credits for these.
Sweeney Todd
La Vie en Rose
While the last two aren't musicals in the traditional sense of the word, original music in actual "song" form plays a HUGE part in the films.

And the nerdery is complete, at least until tomorrow. Should I be ashamed of all that? Yeah, maybe a little. Am I? Gods no!!